Marksman Trading

NASDAQ E-Mini day trading commentary for 9/7

Lee — Tue, 07 Sep 2010 11:50:21 +0000

The NASDAQ reacted like the rest of the stock indices last Friday by gapping up on the open and holding onto those gains. They look awfully strong at this point but continue the upside momentum this next week will be the big key. Tuesday should find resistance around 1876 to 1880 with anything much higher probably exceeding 1900 also. Support sets up in a wide band between 1850 and 1840 with a break of 1835 probably having somewhat ominous implications. My inclination is to look to sell resistance Tuesday because I think the momentum of the last few days is too strong to continue, but we can’t be shocked if they are able to just continue and I’ll drop plans to sell resistance if they head lower early first instead. The next couple of days will probably set up the rest of the month.

NASDAQ E-Mini day trading commentary for 9/3

Lee — Fri, 03 Sep 2010 03:32:29 +0000

The NASDAQ stayed well above 1804 and managed to reach 1840 very late in the day, but they did close back down below it. Holding both support and resistance was expected and it really tells us absolutely nothing about what to expect for Friday. The monthly employment report before the open is bound to be the primary motivator for whatever movement there is, and traders normally head for the exits within just a couple hours of that report and trading thins out dramatically. If that sounds like something you wish to get involved in feel free, but I don’t think I’d trade them with Donald Trump’s money. Resistance is near 1850 and support near 1815 for those of you with nothing better to do than watch. Fire up the grill, and have a great holiday weekend!

NASDAQ E-mini day trading commentary for 9/2

Lee — Thu, 02 Sep 2010 11:39:43 +0000

The NASDAQ provided exactly what I was looking for Wednesday, which is a rare occurrence to say the least. They rallied up above 1820 just as I hoped and closed right there, so how they behave in the next couple of days should give us a big clue for what the next month will bring. Thursday might be a little shaky because of what awaits them Friday, and how well they like Friday’s employment report will probably be the major driver. Plus traders have a tendency to bail out and try to get that one last summer time break before Labor Day so trading may thin out drastically. We are looking at resistance near 1840 and support near 1804. I doubt resistance will be reached and I’m not sure support will hold, but even if they break support there is more near 1785. It is almost as if what they do Thursday doesn’t really matter because Friday morning can move them into a different universe. I’m probably just locked out until Tuesday at the earliest.

NASDAQ E-Mini day trading commentary for 9/1

Lee — Wed, 01 Sep 2010 03:10:33 +0000

The NASDAQ was down below 1755 early Tuesday and then up above 1780 fairly quickly. I would have thought that was pretty positive if they hadn’t gone sideways for the next 4 hours and then broke down below 1760 again. They did not stay down there and closed back up near 1775, but they made my neck feel like I’d been watching a tennis match. The official close was near 1766 but that was just due to the end of month price adjustment. If they can get above 1775 and stay there Wednesday they could possibly test 1795, but they have been too squirrelly lately for me to have much faith in anything they might do. Major support is still 1750 – 1755 and they won’t look broken unless they get below 1740. I’d really prefer they rally up above 1820 so we can see if resistance will slam them back down. Six days of sideways just needs to be resolved in some fashion.

NASDAQ E-Mini day trading commentary for 8/31

Lee — Tue, 31 Aug 2010 05:06:16 +0000

The NASDAQ didn’t get above 1800 Monday and they didn’t stay or close above 1775. It isn’t an understatement to say that I’m really, really surprised by how weak they acted because I thought sure they would at least finish the month out strong as is the tradition even in bear markets. Now I’m really confused. They have to break to new lows to confirm serious weakness and closing right on the low like they did Monday often indicates at least momentary exhaustion, but it sure is hard to watch them reverse back down after such a huge rally Friday and still believe that they want to go up. It might be worthwhile to monitor a marginal break of 1760 Tuesday morning to see if they can hold because they might be back above 1775 and up to 1790 fairly quickly afterwards. I really thought Friday made a good low of some degree and I just can’t bring myself to sell them as they drop down here again.

NASDAQ E-Mini day trading commentary for 8/30

Lee — Mon, 30 Aug 2010 04:45:17 +0000

The NASDAQ took a trip down below 1755 early Friday but they didn’t not break 1740 and they didn’t stay down there long. They were back to 1775 in the first hour and continued higher to close above 1790. I’m not ready to re-mortgage the house to buy stocks here but I think this ought to be more than just a one day wonder. They need to stay comfortably above 1775 again Monday and I would really like to see them get above 1800, although there is more resistance just before they reach 1810. I wouldn’t mind seeing another nice drive higher, although I really think remaining relatively quiet is a more likely scenario. Weekends can bring all kinds of surprises, but Friday’s price action should lead to at least a couple more positive days.

NASDAQ E-Mini day trading commentary for 8/27

Lee — Fri, 27 Aug 2010 04:27:29 +0000

The NASDAQ was actually above 1800 briefly Thursday but that was a very distant memory by the close. They really relentlessly drove down all day without any ability to attract buyers or encourage serious volume. They absolutely did get as low as 1765 regardless of how many folks were trading them though. They are pretty close to the low of the move so you have to consider support as a band a couple points either side of 1755. It would probably take a thrill seeker to try to buy down there and a break of 1740 might register on the Richter scale. The GDP will be out before the open and there is a tremendous focus on what Fed chairman Benanke has to say a little later, but it sure looks like it would take something special from either of those to get the course reversed here. They got pretty good news from the weekly unemployment claims Thursday and that sure didn’t help much. The best resistance to continue the move lower is near 1780. They sure don’t have to rally that high but getting back above that level would be somewhat positive.

NASDAQ E-Mini day trading commentary for 8/26

Lee — Thu, 26 Aug 2010 03:56:10 +0000

The NASDAQ took a trip all the way down to test 1755 early Wednesday and then rallied all the way up above 1793 before closing back below it. I would have preferred to see them close above 1793, but I think you still have to look at rallying more than 40 points of the low as being relatively positive. Support might be down in the 1775 area for Thursday but it would be just fine if they just get above 1795 and stay there without testing support. Reaching the 1815 level would be a very welcome development, and of course would mean that they have more than filled the gap left on the daily chart when they gapped down Tuesday. Gapping up Thursday (which I’m not necessarily anticipating) would create an island reversal and could bode very well for the rest of the month. I’m not sure they can do anything that would make me believe the longer term is positive though.

NASDAQ E-Mini day trading commentary for 8/25

Lee — Wed, 25 Aug 2010 04:24:43 +0000

The NASDAQ was at 1787 immediately on the open Tuesday, making the question of whether 1795 constituted enough of a break of 1800 completely moot. They broke to 1766 on the existing home sales report and then rallied all the way to 1793, but not reaching the previous close on that rally looked pretty pathetic. Even rallying back to 1787 in the last hour was not enough to prevent them from closing below 1775, and you really have to be a cockeyed optimist to find much of anything positive here. Support is around 1755 and support is support until it is broken … but you have to wonder what would make it hold. Of course, sometimes that lonely support holding is all it takes to entice buying. Tuesday’s 1793 high is now a critical level because it obviously has to be exceeded if they are going to fill the gap back up to 1809 and failing there again Wednesday would smell pretty bad. There really doesn’t seem to be much of any good news, but there hasn’t been for quite a while. As ugly as the price action looks you have to wonder if they haven’t priced in just about all the negative stuff that could be generated, at least this week. That is as close as I can come to being positive.

NASDAQ E-Mini day trading commentary for 8/24

Lee — Tue, 24 Aug 2010 04:53:29 +0000

The NASDAQ opened already above 1830 Monday, which is not the best way for breakouts to occur normally. They got up above 1842 for a little while, but they turned and sold off pretty hard from there. They actually got below 1810 and still didn’t take out 1800, but it was very late in the day when they got there. Seeing that much weakness almost certainly means that the upside breakout was false, but it doesn’t mean that the downside break can’t be false as well. We need to see if there is any follow thru Tuesday. We now have to allow a marginal break of 1800 before we can truly believe they are “broken” and I think a move below 1795 would probably do that. They could go all the way back up to 1822 and still continue lower but anything much higher than that would suggest that all of this price action is nonsense and they still don’t really know what they want to do. I’m still clinging to some upside hope but Monday was decidedly not helpful in that regard. This could get ugly.